Look, I want to walk you through what Realtor.com Research is telling us about the national market right now, because it has some real implications for how we think about timing here in the Bay Area. According to their analysis, we're heading into what they're calling the best week to buy this year, and it comes down to a shift in how both buyers and sellers are behaving. The market has been relatively calm over the last couple years, and now we're seeing inventory levels that are more generous than they've been, while seller expectations are finally starting to align with reality instead of holding out for unrealistic prices.
What's interesting is how the year has played out nationally. Early on, mortgage rates were looking pretty good, which had people optimistic, but then geopolitical tensions pushed rates back up and took some wind out of the market's sails. That said, rates have stayed below where they were a year ago for much of the time. Realtor.com says the national market is now sitting in "balanced" territory, which means it's not favoring buyers or sellers dramatically one way or the other, but the trends are moving in a direction that's more favorable for buyers as we head into the fall.
Here's something that caught my attention though, and it matters for understanding who's actually buying right now. The data shows us a pretty stark divide emerging in the market. Sales of homes under five hundred thousand dollars have cooled significantly more than sales in higher price ranges, and homes in the million to two million dollar range have held up particularly well. Realtor.com's research suggests this isn't just a simple slowdown across the board. Instead, buying activity is shifting upmarket because entry level buyers simply don't have the same purchasing power anymore, while luxury buyers with the means to compete are staying active.
What's driving this is something they call the K-shaped market, where the high end holds firm while the lower and middle segments shrink. Back in twenty twenty-one, homes under three hundred seventy thousand represented about half the listings but drew even more buyer attention relative to supply. Now in twenty twenty-six, those same entry level homes are drawing significantly fewer views as a percentage of listings. Meanwhile, luxury inventory has actually grown well beyond pre-pandemic levels, yet luxury buyers have maintained their interest. The implication is clear: if you don't have strong income or significant resources, you're being priced out.
What I am seeing locally here in the Bay Area and East Bay, particularly in Fremont and around the region, is that this national pattern is playing out even more intensely. Our entry level and first time buyer markets have gotten even tighter than the national average, which means that week in late September and early October might matter, but it matters mostly if you're a buyer with real purchasing power behind you. For folks trying to break into our market in the lower price tiers, the challenge isn't just about timing a particular week. It's about the structural fact that we're short on the kinds of homes that fit working and middle class budgets, and that shortage keeps getting worse, not better.
