According to HousingWire, the ratio between new listings hitting the market and homes going under contract is narrowing, and that's something worth keeping an eye on. Last week, for every hundred new single-family homes that came on the market nationally, only eighty-six went pending. That's notably down from ninety-six the week before and ninety-seven during the same week last year. While one week doesn't necessarily signal a trend, especially coming right after Labor Day, this pattern has been showing up consistently over the past six weeks when compared to last year's numbers.
What's particularly interesting is how the actual supply and demand numbers are moving separately. New listings jumped up significantly year over year, while pending sales actually declined compared to the same period last year. Once you get past the holiday disruption, new supply bounced back much more aggressively than the number of homes buyers were actually putting under contract. This creates a potential buildup situation if the pattern continues.
The natural consequence of more homes sitting on the market without offers is that active inventory has been climbing and months of supply has hit levels we haven't seen in trailing data for a while. Now, here's where it gets interesting: days on market hasn't changed year over year, sitting right at seventy days in both years. That tells us the seasonal slowdown we're seeing is pretty typical for this time of year rather than something abnormal happening right now.
HousingWire points out that price cuts are showing up on just over forty-two percent of active listings this week, compared to forty-one and a half percent last year. It's a small difference, but it's been trending that way for three weeks running, suggesting sellers are starting to feel a bit more pressure from competing listings. However, the increase isn't dramatic enough yet to suggest real seller stress across the board.
The data also reveals that what's happening nationally isn't uniform across all markets. According to the reporting, Denver is seeing a much sharper disconnect between new listings and pending sales compared to last year, while Dallas is holding relatively steady. This is an important reminder that mortgage rates are the same everywhere, but local market conditions are driving different outcomes depending on where you are.
What I am seeing locally mirrors some of what's happening nationally, though the Bay Area and East Bay have their own dynamics that don't always move in lockstep with the broader trends. We've got strong fundamentals here, but I'm watching the same ratio HousingWire is tracking. If new listings keep coming faster than homes are going pending, that could shift the negotiating power back toward buyers in a way we haven't seen in quite a while. The next few weeks of data will tell us whether this is just post-holiday timing or the beginning of a real shift in how our market is flowing.
