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Monday, October 19, 2026Bay Area Market: Coverage updated daily

Will Republicans help this underdog liberal unseat a longtime Democratic congressman?

Democrat Eric Jones focused his primary campaign on young progressive liberals. But to unseat longtime incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson, a traditional “Blue Dog” Democrat, Jones has recently pivoted to court centrists and even Republicans.

Bay Area real estate and housing market
Curated News BriefBased on original reporting by CalMatters Housing (September 29, 2026). The summary below is the Journal’s; the local analysis is original commentary by Omar Murillo.

Let me walk you through what's happening in California's 4th Congressional District race, because it's a fascinating story about how politics is shifting out there.

According to CalMatters Housing, there's an unusual primary runoff taking shape in a redrawn district that stretches from the wine country of Napa and Sonoma all the way to the agricultural areas of Yuba, Sutter, and other counties. Democrat Eric Jones is challenging the longtime incumbent Mike Thompson, and here's the twist: Jones is actively courting both frustrated progressives and disaffected Republicans to build his winning coalition. It's based on the theory that voters fed up with the establishment on both sides might have more in common with each other than with traditional party loyalists.

Jones is a 35-year-old philanthropist and former venture capitalist who's personally invested more than five million dollars into his own campaign. He moved to Napa just a few years ago after his son was born with a serious health condition requiring surgery at UCSF, but his newcomer status has become an issue. Thompson, who's 75 and has represented the district for 27 years, is questioning why Jones needed to move there from San Francisco and suggesting he's trying to "buy" the seat with his personal wealth. Interestingly, the Republican who came in third during the primary, Ray Riehle, has endorsed Jones and is now helping him build support among Republicans in the district.

Jones has focused his campaign messaging on anti-establishment themes, criticizing Thompson for accepting donations from pharmaceutical companies, insurance firms, and notably from Pacific Gas and Electric. He points to PG&E's role in the devastating wildfires that burned through Napa and Sonoma back in 2017. Thompson defends these contributions by pointing out that PG&E employs thousands of his constituents and that he's pushed the utility to invest in renewable energy while also helping wildfire survivors.

The Jones campaign website features an ambitious list of policy proposals, everything from eliminating federal income taxes for people making under a certain amount to term limits for Congress members. However, some voters at campaign events have questioned how realistic these goals are and what connections Jones actually has in Washington to make them happen. He's mentioned relationships with several junior California representatives, though none of them hold senior committee positions or party leadership roles.

Thompson remains the favorite here. He won the primary with a significant margin, receiving 41 percent of the vote compared to Jones's 22 percent. Many voters in the district, like one wine executive I've heard about, have supported Thompson for decades because he's delivered for local industries and has deep roots there, still living in his family home that his great-grandfather bought back in the 1890s.

What I'm seeing locally in the Bay Area and through the East Bay is that this kind of anti-establishment energy is real, and we're watching it play out in real estate markets too. When longtime representatives face challenges like this, it often signals broader frustration with how things have been managed. For buyers and sellers, what matters is that these political shifts can affect everything from housing policy to development approval timelines. Thompson's 27 years of seniority on the Ways and Means Committee means real influence over tax policy that touches our industry. Jones is betting that people are hungry for change, but Thompson's experience and local credibility remain substantial advantages as we head toward November.