According to HousingWire, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications climbed 1.9% during the week ending July 17, 2026. This uptick happened even though mortgage rates continued climbing, with the 30-year conforming rate hitting 6.69%, marking its highest point since the previous August. The news shows an interesting split in activity, with homebuyers becoming more active while refinancing slowed down.
Looking at the numbers more closely, purchase applications jumped 6% week over week, which is a meaningful move for a single week. At the same time, refinance applications dropped 2%, which makes sense when rates are going up and fewer people benefit from refinancing. The MBA's chief economist noted that growing home inventory across many markets is helping to support this purchase activity, giving buyers more options even in a higher-rate environment.
The data also reveals some shifting preferences among borrowers. The share of adjustable-rate mortgages ticked up to 7.7% of all applications, suggesting some buyers are willing to take on ARM products when fixed rates feel too expensive. Refinancing as a share of total activity fell to about 41% from the prior week's 43%. Meanwhile, FHA and VA loan shares both decreased slightly from the previous week.
A separate metric called the Mortgage Intent Index, which tracks credit-pull activity, gained about 1.2% week over week, suggesting that borrower interest has remained relatively stable. However, this index was still running about 7% below the same week in 2025, indicating that while things may be stabilizing after the July 4th holiday period, activity remains softer compared to a year ago when rates were lower.
The economist commentary points to conflicting signals in the broader economy. Inflation did ease in June, but oil prices spiked again, which typically keeps pressure on mortgage rates going forward. Additionally, foreclosure filings climbed 21% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, suggesting underlying stress in the market despite the recent uptick in applications.
What I am seeing locally here in the Bay Area is consistent with this picture. Higher rates are definitely making buyers more selective, but when homes actually hit the market and show real value, we do see purchase activity. The increase in inventory across many regions is real, and that's giving buyers in the East Bay and Fremont area a bit more breathing room to shop around. However, that year-over-year decline in borrower intent tells me plenty of people are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see where rates stabilize before making their moves.
