So here's what's happening with mortgage rates this week, and it's worth paying attention to. According to Realtor.com Research, the 30-year mortgage rate moved up to 6.58%, driven by a shift in market sentiment around geopolitical risks. The U.S.-Iran tensions have flared up again, and that's pushing oil prices higher, which creates real concerns about inflation creeping back into the picture. Even though we got some encouraging inflation data last week, investors are now reconsidering whether the Federal Reserve will actually be able to cut rates anytime soon.
The real story here is what happens with inflation going forward. Right now, all eyes are on core inflation, which strips out the volatile swings in energy and food prices. If headline inflation rises because of higher energy costs but core inflation stays stable, that might give the Fed some breathing room and keep them from raising rates further. But if those energy prices push overall inflation higher and core inflation follows, we could be looking at a tougher environment longer term.
We're transitioning into summer now, and this market is showing some interesting resilience compared to what we saw last year. According to the data Realtor.com is tracking, pending home sales have been climbing for seven straight months, and we're not seeing the kind of contract cancellations or delisting activity that plagued the market a year ago. That tells me buyers and sellers are still actively working to close deals, which is a real shift from the stagnation we experienced during the summer of 2025.
What I am seeing locally here in the Bay Area and across the East Bay is that while rates and headlines create uncertainty, people are still motivated to transact. The momentum from spring hasn't completely evaporated as we head into the slower months, and that's meaningful for sellers with inventory and buyers still searching.
