Look, we're seeing a mixed picture in the national housing market as we move through mid-2026. According to Realtor.com Research, existing home sales dipped about 1.7 percent in July, landing at 4.06 million units, though that June number got revised upward when the data came in more complete. What's important here is that we're still looking at our fourth consecutive year of growth compared to July of last year, which tells me the market has found some stability even if we're not seeing dramatic momentum.
The mortgage rate environment is playing a big role in what we're observing. Rates stayed relatively steady at higher levels back in May and June when most of these July closings were being negotiated, and that stability seems to be supporting sales activity. At the same time, pending sales data shows some softening, particularly in new listings. For the first time in several months, new listings aren't coming in ahead of where they were last year, which suggests some sellers are holding back despite these steadier market conditions.
Nationally, we're in what researchers call a balanced market, meaning it's not strongly favoring buyers or sellers. The months supply of homes sits at 4.6 months, which is right in the middle of that balanced range. That said, first-time buyers represented just 29 percent of sales in July, which is actually down from the prior month but still a tick ahead of 2025 levels when you account for improved affordability across the country.
Here's where it gets interesting: the regional differences are striking. According to Realtor.com's market analysis, the Northeast and Midwest continue to show the most competitive conditions, where homes are still regularly selling above asking price. Meanwhile, the West and South are posting much slower price growth. The median home price did rise 2 percent nationally to just over 434,000 dollars, but that regional variation mirrors what we see in the hottest markets concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest.
What I am seeing locally in the Bay Area and Fremont is that we're not experiencing the same momentum as those Midwest and Northeast markets. Our West region posted just 0.2 percent price growth year-over-year, and that softer asking price trend is definitely showing up in our inventory as well. This means sellers here need to be realistic about pricing and presentation, while buyers who've been waiting might finally be seeing some opportunities emerge, though inventory remains tight enough that good properties still get competition.
