Look, here's what Realtor.com Research is telling us about where the existing home market stands. September showed sales running at a pace that's actually behind where we were a year ago, though we did pick up a bit from August. The key factor here is mortgage rates. Back when these September sales were going under contract in August, rates were sitting around 6.7 percent, which at that time was the highest we'd seen in over a year. That's a pretty significant jump from where rates had been, and it's putting pressure on sales volume compared to last year.
The monthly trend data is painting a picture of some momentum, but not a lot of it. While pending sales only dipped slightly from July to August, we're seeing much larger gaps when we compare to the same months last year. That tells me buyers are holding back more than they were twelve months ago. One thing worth noting is that mortgage rates have recently stabilized a bit after that rapid repricing in mid-September, which should eventually help restore some buyer confidence, though these things take time to work through the market.
Inventory is doing something interesting right now. We're sitting at around four and a half months of supply, which is the highest level we've seen since late 2015. This is happening because we've got lower sales activity combined with lower new inventory coming on the market. At the same time, active inventory overall continues to climb, even though new listings aren't keeping pace with last year like they used to in the spring months.
One bright spot in this picture is that first-time home buyers are gaining a little more traction. According to Realtor.com, first-time buyers accounted for 31 percent of sales in September, up from 30 percent the prior month and year. The nationwide starter home supply crunch is easing up, which should give entry-level buyers a better shot at finding something, though conditions still vary quite a bit depending on your local market.
On pricing, we're seeing year-over-year gains of about 1.3 percent, though prices are doing their normal seasonal decline month to month. What's notable is that asking prices overall are running softer in 2026 compared to last year, showing a bit more weakness when you look at the broader picture.
What I'm seeing locally here in the Bay Area and Fremont is that this national slowdown is definitely reaching our market. With rates staying elevated and inventory gradually building, this is becoming a more balanced situation than we've had in years. For sellers, that means the easy days of multiple offers are behind us, and pricing needs to be realistic. For buyers, this is actually creating some breathing room to be more selective and negotiate, something that hasn't been easy in our competitive area for quite a while.
