According to Redfin News, we're seeing some interesting shifts in the national housing market as of mid-October. The big headline is that asking prices have finally dipped for the first time since March, though the decline was modest at less than a third of a percent. Meanwhile, actual sale prices are growing at their slowest pace since March as well, showing real momentum has cooled considerably compared to where things were earlier in the year.
The activity side of the market tells a challenging story. Pending sales inched up slightly week to week, but they're hovering near record lows overall. This means fewer homes are actually under contract, which speaks to buyer hesitation. On the inventory front, new listings came down slightly, but active listings are up and months of supply has ticked upward to four point two months, which is moving toward what's considered a more balanced market rather than a seller's market.
The mortgage payment situation continues to weigh heavily on affordability. According to Redfin's data, the median monthly mortgage payment hit its highest level ever recorded in their historical data, except for the week immediately prior. This is primarily driven by mortgage rates sitting at seven point four percent, making monthly carrying costs a real burden for buyers.
There's some nuance in how homes are moving. About a quarter of listings now carry price reductions, which is up from the previous week, suggesting sellers are adjusting their expectations. However, nearly a quarter of homes are still selling above list price, and the average home is fetching ninety-eight point four percent of asking price, both of which point to pockets of strength despite the overall softening.
Looking at regional patterns, Minneapolis saw new listings drop by more than eighteen percent, and notably, pending sales declined across every metro area Redfin tracks for the first time in three years. Nashville is still seeing robust new listing activity with a significant jump, while Jacksonville is moving in the opposite direction with fewer new homes coming to market.
What I'm seeing locally here in the Bay Area and the East Bay mirrors these national crosscurrents. Buyers are becoming more selective as mortgage payments remain stubbornly high, and I'm noticing more sellers willing to adjust their pricing strategies as homes spend a bit more time on the market. The shift toward balanced inventory conditions is real, and it's creating new opportunities for smart buyers while reminding sellers that their pricing needs to reflect today's market realities, not what worked six months ago.
