According to Realtor.com Research, the national rental market continues to show signs of relief for tenants. In June 2026, median asking rents across the fifty largest metropolitan areas fell for the thirty-fifth consecutive year compared to the same month the prior year. Studios, one-bedroom units, and two-bedroom apartments all recorded declines, with median rents dropping between 1.4% and 2.2% year over year. While these drops are meaningful, rents overall remain substantially higher than they were before the pandemic, sitting roughly 15 to 18 percent above June 2019 levels.
The underlying driver of this rental softness appears to be a significant increase in multifamily construction over the past several years. The surge in new apartment buildings coming online has expanded supply in ways that benefit renters by moderating price growth. Looking ahead, Realtor.com expects this pattern to continue through 2026, with year-over-year rent declines likely persisting even as seasonal factors push monthly rents up slightly as we move through summer.
Supply dynamics, however, vary considerably by market. The research shows that multifamily permitting activity cooled in 2025 compared to earlier years, raising questions about whether rent relief will be sustainable long term. New York stands out as particularly concerning, with the lowest permitting rate among major metros since 2019 and the sharpest decline in new permit activity on record. Boston also shows weak permitting, which some observers connect to local tenant advocacy for rent control measures that recently failed at the ballot box.
On the brighter side, several markets are seeing encouraging momentum. Florida's rental markets, particularly Orlando and Miami, have rebounded to peak permitting rates from 2021. San Jose in the Bay Area is also experiencing increased permitting activity, though rents there continue climbing faster than the national trend. Cities like Columbus have implemented zoning reforms designed to unlock thousands of new units, while smaller legacy markets like Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and Providence are finally seeing their permit rates tick upward after years of minimal activity.
What I am seeing locally here in the Bay Area tells a more nuanced story than the national trend. While San Jose is finally seeing developers move projects forward, which is terrific for long-term supply, the median rent there continues climbing well above the national pattern. The AI boom fueling demand in our region means that any relief from new construction gets absorbed quickly. For buyers and sellers here in the East Bay and Fremont, this dynamic matters because it keeps pressure on both the rental and purchase markets, even as other parts of the country experience genuine affordability gains.
