According to Redfin News and Home Economics, late August is shaping up to be an excellent time for homebuyers to negotiate better prices in several major markets across the country. The analysis looked at seasonal trends in home discounts and found that California cities like Anaheim, Oakland, Sacramento, and San Jose all hit their best bargaining periods in late August. The same sweet spot applies to Austin, Portland, and some New York City area markets like Nassau County and Newark. If you're shopping in Atlanta, Denver, or Seattle, you might want to wait just a bit longer, as those metros tend to see their steepest discounts arrive in early September.
The underlying pattern here is pretty straightforward. According to Redfin's senior economist Asad Khan, discounts from asking prices tend to grow through late summer and typically peak in early fall. This happens because sellers who listed their homes back in spring or early summer and haven't found buyers yet often become motivated to negotiate or drop their prices. Different regions see this pattern play out at slightly different times, but the general trend holds across most of the country.
The timing advantage matters even more when you consider the broader market dynamics in these areas. Many of the metros where late August and September offer the best deals are actually buyer's markets, which means there's more housing supply than demand. This tips the negotiating power in your favor as a buyer. Redfin agents are seeing first-time homebuyers getting qualified for programs, securing concessions from sellers to help with mortgage rates, and existing homeowners using their equity to upgrade to larger properties.
It's worth noting that the best time to buy involves more than just chasing the lowest prices. Redfin economists point out that you need to balance two competing interests. Shopping when there's the most inventory gives you more homes to choose from and better odds of finding exactly what you want. But shopping when there's the most competition can drive up prices and make it harder to negotiate. The data shows that peak new listings often arrive in mid-May across many markets, while peak inventory might come later in the summer, and then the best discounts arrive in late summer and early fall.
What I am seeing locally here in the Bay Area aligns pretty closely with what this analysis is showing. Our California markets like Oakland, San Jose, and Sacramento are all benefiting from that late August discount window, and I'm definitely advising clients to be thinking about their moves now. If you're a buyer, this is the moment to get serious about that search and put in offers. If you're a seller who's been on the market for a while, you might want to have a conversation about pricing strategy before the real push of motivated sellers hits in September.
