Look, I just got wind of some interesting data from Redfin News about what's happening across the country right now, and it tells a story that should matter to folks thinking about buying or selling. According to their latest report, pending home sales have fallen to levels we haven't seen in nearly three years. That's a meaningful shift in how active the market is, and it's worth understanding what it means for negotiating power.
Here's what caught my attention. The number of homes with pending sales during the four weeks ending mid-September came in lower than the prior year, and that decline happened week-over-week as well. At the same time, the number of active listings on the market actually grew year-over-year, which means inventory is building. When you combine lower pending sales with more homes available, you get a situation where buyers have genuinely more choices and less competition than they've had in recent years.
The data also shows some interesting movement in how homes are priced and how quickly they're moving. Median sale prices stayed relatively flat compared to a year ago, and when you look at the share of homes being listed with price reductions, that number ticked up. Meanwhile, a quarter of homes still sold above asking price, which tells me there's still plenty of buyer demand out there, just not at the frenzied levels we saw before.
Supply and demand appear to be balancing out in ways that favor buyers. According to Redfin's metrics, months of supply moved up to about four point one, which is getting closer to what experts consider a balanced market. Homes are sitting on the market around forty-six days on average, and a growing share of listings are seeing price adjustments.
What I am seeing locally here in the Bay Area and out in the East Bay communities like Fremont is that this national trend is giving my clients who are buying a better seat at the negotiation table than they've had in years. Sellers are having to think more strategically about pricing, and buyers aren't facing the same constant bidding wars they once were. For anyone who's been waiting on the sidelines thinking the market was too hot, this might be the moment to have a real conversation about what's possible.
