# Bay Area Real Estate Journal Brief
California has enacted a new law that's creating some real accountability for higher education programs. According to CalMatters Housing, schools across the country now need to show that their graduates are earning at least what someone with just a high school diploma makes in their state. In California, that baseline is roughly thirty-six thousand dollars annually. If programs can't demonstrate their graduates hit that mark, students attending those programs will eventually lose access to federal student loans, with the deadline for compliance falling a couple of years out.
The numbers here are interesting. CalMatters reports that out of about three thousand higher education programs evaluated across California, roughly ninety percent of graduates cleared that earnings threshold. But here's the catch: around three hundred programs fell short, and they're concentrated in some specific areas. Cosmetology programs struggled most, but so did many in the arts, theater, and medical assistance fields. The struggling programs showed up across the board, too, from for-profit trade schools all the way to some theatrical and fine arts programs at major university systems like Cal State and UC campuses.
What caught my attention is how low that bar actually is. One education policy researcher told CalMatters that expecting university graduates to earn at least the high school diploma baseline is actually pretty minimal. But here in the Bay Area specifically, that thirty-six thousand dollars is barely enough to handle housing costs, let alone everything else that comes with living here. That's a real tension worth noting.
Schools have been pretty quiet about how they'll respond so far. CalMatters reached out to over fifteen institutions and got very few responses. The exception was the California Institute of the Arts, which acknowledged their fine arts and film graduates are coming in significantly below that threshold at around thirty thousand dollars. Their leadership explained that creative careers take longer to develop and many graduates intentionally turn down corporate positions. The institute said they're not planning to shut down these programs, though they're emphasizing the need to inform students about the potential consequences ahead.
What I'm seeing locally is that this law is going to force some honest conversations between schools and students about post-graduation earning potential. In the Bay Area and East Bay, where cost of living is so steep, that thirty-six thousand dollar threshold might sound low to some, but it's going to be a real pressure point for certain program types. Students and families need to go in with eyes open about what their degree is actually going to position them to earn, especially if they're taking on debt to get there.
